by Andy
August 26, 2011
Only in very rare circumstances does the sequel live up to the original. Godfather II comes to mind. Caddy Shack II does not. The same is true in business. Maintaining the trajectory of current success, especially success as prolific and globally beloved as Apple’s, is no easy task. I argue it’s impossible.
Interestingly, business and tech pundits alike remain very bullish on Apple and its newly appointed CEO, Tim Cook. All knew this transition was coming. Steve Jobs‘ on-going battles with pancreatic cancer forced him to take medical leave in January. Even with Jobs on leave, the global love of Apple continued and it even took over the #1 position as world’s the most valuable firm for a day (eclipsing ExxonMobil). Jobs was on the sidelines and Cook was at the helm. Success continued.
Tim has been Steve Jobs’ right hand for many years and is largely credited with commercializing Steve’s vision. And with a pipeline of new products and technologies in various phases of development, all seem to believe Apple will more than survive. Even highly informed observers fell in line with this thinking including John C. Abell, the New York City Bureau Chief of Wired Magazine. After the announcement of Jobs stepping down, Mr. Abell was interviewed on CNN for his take on the transition.
While I’m paraphrasing, Mr. Abell believes ‘Apple will continue to succeed mightily. Its pipeline, brand love, wide distribution, and passionate user-base will sustain it through this period. Furthermore, since Apple is now a mature company, it has more need for business acumen than inspiration. Tim is well trained for this assignment.’ He then qualified his remarks by saying that, ‘in time, all companies eventually lose their mojo’ (which is true), ‘but if any company is in great position to merrily continue along for many years to come, it’s Apple with Tim Cook at the helm.’
I’m not so sure.
Effective branding or brand leadership is not just about products. Powerful branding is about vision, about audacity, about believing. This is particularly true for technology. The product (or brand experience) must meet these lofty expectations to keep competitors at bay, users loyal, and margins high. Execution supports vision – not the other way around. When a visionary leader steps aside and topics like supply chain, cost rationalization, logistics move to the fore, it starts the sad and deadly march toward commoditization.
Tech is all about vision. It’s not necessarily about business acumen (though the latter is certainly needed). I believe Tim Cook is the right choice – the only choice. It’s just that the shoes Mr. Cook must wear are too big, which makes the likelihood of tripping inevitable. Just ask Steve Ballmer.
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A provocative look beyond the blinding light that is Steve Jobs. To your point, Apple/Jobs has always been about ideas and audacity; a singular, un-compromised vision, perfectly executed. And since the pipeline is filled with those visions awaiting execution, I suspect things at Apple will continue unabated for the foreseeable future. But when the pipeline empties, what then?
For those of us weathered souls who’ve lived and/or watched Apple from the beginning, it’s impossible to separate Apple and Jobs. He birthed it and resurrected it. We’ve witnessed Apple attempt the “pinstripe leadership” route before, and fail miserably. But those were back in the days when Apple was a cult, a statement, and not the global beast it is now. I honestly don’t know how strong the association of Jobs to Apple is to a 30-something, and whether his departure will have any impact on their perceptions and expectations. To those of us who see the two as one, the difference is huge; to those who don’t, it may be business as usual. Time will tell. But the real question isn’t Tim Cook, the real question is where are the ideas going to come from, the creative vision and style, when the well runs dry? At the end of the day, that’s the heart and soul of Apple.
Great post Andy.
Great point Gene. Those under 30 should would neither see nor appreciate the connection between Jobs and Apple. Why should they? Hopefully they never will. The problem for Apple is that its meteoric rise is not sustainable — even if Jobs remained in great health forever. It will stumble at some point. I just wonder how soon that stumble will occur
A provocative look beyond the blinding light that is Steve Jobs. To your point, Apple/Jobs has always been about ideas and audacity; a singular, un-compromised vision, perfectly executed. And since the pipeline is filled with those visions awaiting execution, I suspect things at Apple will continue unabated for the foreseeable future. But when the pipeline empties, what then?
For those of us weathered souls who’ve lived and/or watched Apple from the beginning, it’s impossible to separate Apple and Jobs. He birthed it and resurrected it. We’ve witnessed Apple attempt the “pinstripe leadership” route before, and fail miserably. But those were back in the days when Apple was a cult, a statement, and not the global beast it is now. I honestly don’t know how strong the association of Jobs to Apple is to a 30-something, and whether his departure will have any impact on their perceptions and expectations. To those of us who see the two as one, the difference is huge; to those who don’t, it may be business as usual. Time will tell. But the real question isn’t Tim Cook, the real question is where are the ideas going to come from, the creative vision and style, when the well runs dry? At the end of the day, that’s the heart and soul of Apple.
Great post Andy.
Great point Gene. Those under 30 should would neither see nor appreciate the connection between Jobs and Apple. Why should they? Hopefully they never will. The problem for Apple is that its meteoric rise is not sustainable — even if Jobs remained in great health forever. It will stumble at some point. I just wonder how soon that stumble will occur