The many are smarter than the few.  Two heads are better than one.  These statements underpin the idea that when more folks are consulted about a specific question, the group’s collective answer is more accurate than any individual response.  Which is why focus groups and marketing research have become so critical to today’s business environment.  Unless companies can correctly isolate the right answer or opportunity, they are hesitant to launch anything new in fear of not being correct or not having the requisite CYA documentation to defend their decision.

What if the group is wrong?  What if the numbers lie?

Recently, Will Castle (fellow B2B brand enthusiast and marketing expert) brought to my attention two articles that were recently published in the WSJ.com.

• “Under the Influence: How the Group Changes What We Think” (5/3/11)
• “When We’re Cowed by the Crowd” (5/28/11)

Both articles talk about how technology has dramatically influenced the speed and accuracy of how we think (or appear to think).  One article discussed a study published in Science magazine (2006) where over 14,000 participants rated and downloaded songs.  Half ranked and downloaded songs independently while the other half was allowed to review ratings prior to downloading.  As expected, the results were dramatically different.  If the song was previously highly-rated, it greatly influenced purchase.  The power of groupthink.

This occurs in business too. Shawn & Kevin Coyne recently published a book entitled Brainsteering – a better approach to breakthrough ideas.  Among many wonderful insights, they discussed this very phenomenon among the largest companies in the World.  Focus groups, historically used as incubators and valuators of ideas, are riddled with methodology nightmares.  Even tossing alpha participants from the room does not eliminate the influence of groupthink.  Shawn and Kevin opine that the formats of group research, and the questions asked of the participants, can be the perpetrators of some of the stupidest, most irrelevant ideas imaginable.  Yet they get brought to market because of the findings delivered from these groups.  This is a great read and very helpful in steering meaningful innovation.

Nokia has been victimized by this very thing.  Recently featured in the June 6th issue of Business Week, Nokia used to be “the undisputed king of cell phones… Prior to the introduction of the iPhone, its share was at 49%. Now, it’s down to 25% according to Gartner Group.”  While the Finn culture can be notoriously hardened and reserved, its leadership relied on teams and divisions to innovate – not individuals.  They were slow to ask the right questions, and then discover the right answers, because innovation was left to groupthink.  Its Finnish and corporate culture was anathema to really look beyond themselves.

While Nokia’s victimization by groupthink is apparent, smaller versions of this reality exist at every company in the World.  Many times the culture that binds a company together can also inhibit it.  The reality is that groupthink is not going away.  Ever.

So what can be done?

Besides doing a better job of guiding their own thinking, companies can guide the thinking of their customers.  The music download study is a perfect example of how so-called expert opinions can dramatically influence purchase.  In B2B where the groups (targets) are generally smaller and easier to isolate, this is far easier to do than for consumer marketing.  There, ever-changing groups can be so large and amorphous that it’s hard to even isolate the bell curve – let alone market toward it.

My first suggestion is to move innovation beyond the culture and confines of what pre-exists.  Otherwise you’ll innovate more of what you already have.  Then, consider moving the bell curve toward you and your products, rather than you toward the curve.  The more companies and corporate leadership can influence the group to think toward your POVs and products, the better.  The more influential you become, and subsequently remain, the more secure your customers will be.

Numbers can lie.  Numbers can be misinterpreted.  Rather than rely solely on the numbers to determine course of action, rely on yourself too. Influence the target to better appreciate what you offer.  Those who do not try to influence the category will be destined to chase it forever.